A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that, in being made, actually causes itself to become true. For example, in the stock market, if it is widely believed that a crash is imminent, investors may lose confidence, sell most of their stock, and actually cause the crash. Or, if a candidate in an election openly declares they do not believe they can win, this may increase voter apathy and result in poor support for their campaign.

Self-fulfilling prophecies are often seen as similar to the predestination paradox, in which a person travels back in time to prevent an event, but ends up causing it. These two phenomena differ on a key point however. A self-fulfilling prophecy is when a person with belief of future events alters his behaviour in a way that ends up causing these events. On the other hand, a predestination paradox is when a person with knowledge of past events goes back in time, and ends up causing the events.

Psychology

Self-fulfilling prophecy is sometimes seen as a manifestation of positive feedback in human society. In short, because a given prophecy was known, and was sufficiently credible, it affected people's actions and caused itself. Robert K. Merton is usually acknowledged as the maker of this phrase

Examples abound in studies of cognitive dissonance theory and the related self-perception theory; People will often change their attitudes to come into line with what they profess publicly.

Other specific examples discussed in psychology include:

• Clever Hans effect
• Observer-expectancy effect
• Hawthorne effect
• Placebo effect
• Pygmalion effect

Literature and arts

In literature, self-fulfilling prophecies are often used as plot devices.

One of the earliest examples of self-fulfilling prophecies in literature is the ancient Greek legend of Oedipus. Warned that his child would one day kill him, Laius abandoned his newborn son Oedipus to die. But Oedipus was instead adopted by a foster family, and kept ignorant of his true origins. When he grew up, Oedipus was warned that he would kill his father and marry his mother. Believing his foster parents were his real parents, he left his home and travelled Greece, eventually reaching the city where his biological parents lived. There, he got into a fight with a stranger and killed him, and married his widow. Unknown to anyone at the time, the stranger was Oedipus’ real father, and the widow he married was his mother. Hence, the prophecy about him had come true because of everyone's attempts to prevent it.

Shakespeare's Macbeth is another classic example of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The three witches give Macbeth a prophecy, that Macbeth tries to fulfill.

In more recent arts, the plot of the 2005 movie Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith was based around a self-fulfilling prophecy. The main character, Anakin Skywalker, has a premonitory dream about the death of his wife Padmé Amidala, and searches for a way to save her. However, his solution is what ends up killing her.

In Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, a prophecy was made at Harry Potter’s birth, saying that neither he nor Dark Lord could live while the other survived. To protect himself, the Dark Lord attempted to kill Harry Potter while he was an infant, but his curse backfired on him. Because of the transfer of power that occurred as a result this, the prophecy now has to be fulfilled in order for them to live in peace.

In the computer game Guild Wars, it is prophesized that some Chosen will destroy a race called "Mursaat". To prevent the prophecies from coming true, the Mursaat and some of their worshippers, the White Mantle, kill as many Chosen as possible. However, a group of heroes, see the Chosen being killed, causing them to turn against and eventually destroy the White Mantle and Mursaat to prevent more killings from happening. They are later discovered to be the Chosen themselves.

Series Eight of the British comedy Red Dwarf sees a self-fullfilling prophecy started by the words "In twenty minutes all the Canaries will be dead, except for Rimmer. Rimmer will die in forty seconds of a heart attack from the shock of being told he's going to have a heart attack."

Several classic episodes of The Twilight Zone used a self-fulfilling prophecy. One example is What's in the Box, in which a man sees himself (on television) killing his wife because she had an affair. He tries to confront his wife about it, but ends up killing her.

Technology

In 1965, Gordon Moore predicted that the number of transistors on integrated circuits would double every 18 months. This prediction, which became known as Moore's law, was initially an observation of a trend in the early days of the semiconductor industry. However, it became a benchmark for the evolution of the industry, and a goal companies focused on attaining. It thus became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

See also

• Thomas theorem
• Selection bias
• Self-defeating prophecy
• Predestination paradox
• Clash of civilizations as self-fulfilling prophecy Selbsterfüllende Prophezeiung

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